From next token prediction to next event prediction

Ladies and gentlemen of the internet, consider the following proposition: artificial intelligence and prediction markets are made for each other.

Major conundrums facing humanity are essentially prediction problems. Will the climate change? Will the economy grow? Will the next pandemic be worse than the last one? How will the rate of climate change/economic growth/pandemic severity alter if we implement policy X?
So are local decisions: will this patient’s condition improve if we give them this treatment?
So is all trading, which comes down prediction of future prices of commodities.
There have been incredible advances recently in AI for prediction. If you look under the hood of a recent Large Language Model, you will see a generalized “next thing prediction engine” used, in this case, to predict which words will come next in a sentence.
Now consider the proposition that predictive technology can actually be used to make predictions, in the style of prediction markets.
This can dramatically increase humanity’s capacity to make good decisions.
This also has an obvious built in business model: trading on public prediction markets, hosting private prediction markets for a fee as well as using prediction markets internally to trade on regular (i.e. stock) markets.
If that sounds like a path to AGI, it’s because it probably is. But even if it isn’t, it’s a path to solving some of the world’s most pressing problems and quite literally solving the market. Not bad for worst case scenario, right?

Contact agi@vadim.me if you’d like to join this quest (or are already on it and would like me to join).